Saturday, June 10, 2006

Bad argument

I'm reading Fark and go to ahapless pundit's blog article.

The guy makes the stupidest argument I've ever seen, and he's getting attention for it. Bizarre.

He argues that there are dead people on the voter rolls in West Virginia and that they are Democrats, and that Democrats support that dead people are on the rolls, and only the recently elected Republican is purging the rolls.

Now let's break down the argument.

He starts with a charming story about the ancient Greek battle at Thermopylae and several hundred thousand soldiers dying of plague. Doesn't seem too relevant to dead people on voter rolls, but I suppose it could be considered catchy.

He compares the plague deaths in ancient Greece affecting the battle with the purging of the 6000 from WV rolls affecting elections. He must be assuming that all the dead people are Democrats, and all of the dead people's registration was used in election fraud.

From the orginal article, there's a bit less to the story than our hapless pundit believes.

There are indeed an alleged 6000 dead on the rolls (give or take). It's been difficult to purge them in the past, not because of a giant Democratic plot, but because
"This year, for the first time, the secretary of state has been able to cross-reference voter registration lists with death statistics provided by the state Bureau of Vital Statistics."


There's a little math to the story too. I did the math with handy dandy Excel, the numbers are from the article. WV's total registered voter population is 1130088. From the article, 57% of those are Democrats, or 644150. That leaves 485937 as registered Republicans. If we assume that all of the 6000 are Democrat and subtract them, that leaves the Democrats with 638150 remaining (presumably) live voters. That still leaves the Democrats with a comfortable margin of 152212 to swing any election, so I'm not sure there is much of a motive for widespread zombie voting unless, due to gerrymandering, there is some other dynamic involved.

A quote from the article, "evidence shows the possibility that more than one voted in the recent May primary." Wow, out of 6000 more than 1 may have voted in the primary. Of course, the primary is party-centric (at least, I'm assuming it is in WV) so no damage to the Republicans here. Call in the FBI!

Another quote,
"While saying Ireland’s office will aggressively pursue such offenses, Beakes said some of those marked as voting might be simple clerical mistakes.

We cannot disenfranchise any voter that may be'" erroneously flagged as deceased,” he said."


After reading the article, I'm convinced that WV may have a few dead people voting, perhaps, but that they are few and far between and unlikely to sway an election. I would be astonished if there weren't a few dead people (and pets, and children, and mentally incompetent, and space aliens) voting in all sorts of elections everywhere during all times and all centuries. I would also be astonished if this practice were restricted to one party. Show me some evidence of wide spread voter fraud that affects an election and I'll be the first one to show up, pitchfork in hand, with the other townsfolk.

To return briefly to the blog from the guy making the outlandish and paranoid claims for one last bad argument.

He seems to think the NYTimes is in on the scam. He refers to an editorial piece about Republicans in Ohio and Florida who are (allegedly) trying to "shut down voter registration drives." Ohio and Florida both had issues with votes that did affect an election! I'll let you read the NYTimes article yourself and judge whether or not the evidence presented there is more or less credible than our man from WV.

Lake Natoma Nursery


Took my kayak out for the 1st time this year, finally! The lake was cold, but not bone chilling and the water is nice and high. I cut directly across the lake at Nimbus Flats to the water through the culvert under the bike trail. I didn't see the beavers and don't know if they moved, or are sleeping, or I just didn't see them. Saw plenty of geese, ducks, waterfowl, hawks, and osprey. I also saw some turtles summing themsleves on the logs.

The water back here is mucky and filled with plants. There are also some huge fish, a foot or longer and very fat. It was a little startling for both of us!

I also had to buy new cam straps. As I was putting the old ones on, two of the four just crumbled! Yikes! Had to make a trip to REI to get some new ones, snazzy red and yellow!

Saturday, June 03, 2006

Long drive to Grover Hot Springs

Took Friday off work after deciding it had been too many days since I'd been over 5000 feet! Drove over Highway 4 and Ebbetts Pass. The snow is still very high although it's melting fast!

There's a short (3 miles round trip) hike to some falls at Grover Hot Spring SP which is very pleasant. I saw a juvenile blond bear within a 1/2 mile of the start. I'm not completely sure what size bears are when they leave their mothers so I spent some time scanning the forest for a protective mama. Once the teenager spied me though she scampered away as fast as her bear legs could go (which is pretty fast!). On the way back saw 3 deer.

The drive home was long but saw plenty of the gold country and spied a few places to hike (or kayak) this summer.

Monday, May 29, 2006

Weekend Activity

Saturday cleaned and did chores.

Sunday went for a bike ride with Jodi along the American River. It was a good trip, especially because we stopped at 16th street and took the bus home. It reminded me of when I lived in SF and was jogging. I used to jog from Laguna to Baker Beach and then walk up and catch the 38-Geary home.

Monday I drove up near Cool and Foresthill. I hiked along the Middle Fork of the American River near the Ruck a Chucky camp. The road down was a little fierce for my car, but no broken tie rods and no fluids leaking from holes poked in the bottom by serpentine rock.

Then I drove back and across to the other side of the river. I took Sliger Mine road and exercised my cars suspension system until a dried up mud bed that was way too bumpy stopped me. I did see some sedan type cars below and I'm not sure how they negotiated the obstacle. I guess they just have bigger balls!

I walked down the road a ways to a curve and an abandoned cinder block structure (Sliger Mine?), then headed back.

On the way down I passed two women on the way up. One said to me, "Hiking alone?"

I wanted to give a snarky answer, "No, Harry the Rabbit is hiking with me." But I didn't, I just said yes.

She then said, "Well good for you."

WTF? Usually the conversation is more along the lines of "nice day" and "great day for a hike" or something equally tame. I got the sense too that she was a little critical, that I shouldn't be hiking alone. Yes, well, that's just the way it is. The humans I encountered (several cars passed me on my way up) all waved cheerfully, or, asked if I needed help. I suppose it's statistically possible that a mountain lion could attack me, a jogger was eaten 5 or so years ago...but I think I took my life in my hands much more on the drive on I-80 to and from the hike.

I also sort of wanted to point out that the deep tan they had now looked fine but once they got over 50 they'd look a lot more like leather (and not fine Corintian leather!) than they might prefer. Ooh, snarky!

Good weekend!

Friday, May 26, 2006

Retirement

I can leave the state at 50 and not draw retirement and get the age factor. I will lose health insurance though. I can come back to work though for even 1 day and then retire and get the health benefits.

I'm at a retirement function.

Sick leave credit is by contract. 250 hours of SL equals 1 year of service credit. Days of SL / 250

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Sent from my Treo

Tuesday, May 23, 2006

Too bad my brother is getting so old

This is a quote from His Oldness:
The actor who plays Lucius Malfoy in the Harry Potter
movies is exactly three days younger than me.

* And by fun I mean totally dispiriting.


If I weren't his sister, I would have sympathy. Since I'm his sister, I can just say HA HA! (Note: It might be a jollier HA HA if I weren't older)

Monday, May 22, 2006

Notes from GTC West-Gopal Kapur

The instructor was Gopal Kapur from the Center for Project Management. www.center4pm.com. He’s a great speaker so if you ever have a chance to listen to him, take it.

A. One of the analogies was good…PMO as air traffic control. Here’s a quote as he expands the analogy:


Announcement in an airport lounge: Attention all passengers, all flights are delayed today, possibly cancelled. We are experiencing technical difficulties. Some of the pilots and cabin crew are still in transit. We do not have the right staff to service the planes. There is no one in the air traffic control tower,
and we cannot give you any gate arrival or departure information. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. Have a nice day.
This got a big laugh from all of us as possibly somewhat reflective of some of our IT and PM experiences.
He further outlined the analogy: Can the organization answer questions about its projects? How many are underway? What is their status? What is our capacity for projects? Imagine if the airport could not answer those types of questions about planes.

It drives home how important a PMO (or something that replaces the functions of a PMO) is.

B. He talked too about the common statistics about project failures (Cedars-Sinai, FBI, Hershey Foods, HP, Tri-Valley Growers---at least we’re in good company when a project fails). He recommended that execs fund a PMO, "You’re going to waste the money anyway, why not waste some of it on a project office?"

Where is your PMO Charter?

C. He validated that our PMO is in line with others (in a good way). Many of the things he said we are doing, or are planning on doing.

D. I’m not sure our agency is quite ready for this, but he recommended that we include shutdown conditions in the project charter. Shutdown conditions mean that if the project gets to this state (so much over budget/cost/schedule, or requirements, or technical issues), we’re going to quit the project and close it down as it will no longer make business sense. It’s sort of a prenuptial agreement for projects (kinda).

E. He also talked about making the PMO an attractive place to hang out to comfortably relax and share information so that PM’s are eager to come to the PMO. We may need a library for example.

Saturday, May 20, 2006

Nalu goes home

A great young couple came in and fell in love and took him home! Yeah!

He's relaxing here at the entrance to the shelter after a busy morning leaping after the ball and being charming to those around him. I spent several mobiles with him (Petsmart, Starbuck's Dog Fashion Show, and Family Fitness in Folsom) and then today's adoptathon.

He's a great, great dog and I almost took him home with me.

Vaya con Dios, Nalu!

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Sent from my Treo

Tuesday, May 16, 2006

Chuy's

We ate at this regional chain. The picture represents their cute idea of how to find us to give us our food.
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Sent from my Treo

Thursday, April 27, 2006

Pitbull, grenade, Florida

said Rogers, 30. Fifty, named after famous rapper 50 Cent, is an 8-month-old

"called her father to make sure. Using expertise developed through years of viewing war movies, he surmised it was a grenade"

"The kids were still wearing their pajamas as they drove to the home of Rogers' grandmother."

Writer Willoughby Mariano

Reuters, roadkill, and NASA

NASA fears collisions with the large, carrion-eating birds could damage shuttle

Monday, April 24, 2006

Roseann was adopted!

The dog I took to the Earth Day festival was adopted. She went home to a close to retired couple and will get plenty of attention.

It's funny, I wouldn't have taken her but Stan picked her out and I said sure. She was also close to not making it to the adoption floor but another volunteer lobbied for her. Then of course the couple who adopted her had to show up at the right time to see her. Serendipity.

Missed Intentions

For some reason, I intend to exercise (or clean, or do something productive) a lot more than I actually do. I can find myself thinking, just about as fast as I can think, "I should go for a walk, I should clean my bathroom, I should do dishes, etc, etc). And yet, I'll find another game of solitaire to play, or perhaps another time wasting fark.com article.

At Trader Joe's I managed to used the power in a good way. I intended to get ice cream but they didn't have anything I liked. I then intended to go next door to Brrr's for their superior ice cream. I treated it like exercise and just didn't do it.

The mind is fascinating.

Saturday, April 22, 2006

Earth Day Dog Mobile

No pics of dogs this time, although Coco was the most attractive. She was a big shepherd mix with a reddish coat. Her face was the best, she had a lighter golden face with arches of brown fur over the eyes. I swear one of the early Mickey Mouses looks just like that. Adorable!

I had Roseanne, a salt and pepper Australian cattle dog mix. She was very interested in everything and wanted to be the center of attention. We worked on her sitting instead of jumping up for a treat and by the end of the day she had a nice sit. Two people asked for cards on her so I hope she gets to go home with one of them.

I found the Earth Day surprisingly interesting. There were the usual "prayer chanting" and incense burning activities. I'm sorry, smelly incense is really stupid when you're outdoors under redwood trees. How about just having some pine branches around the house if you want a nice smell. I only saw one scientific exhibit and would have liked to have seen more.

There were some capoeira dancers and that's fascinating. Only a few were really good and it seems like it's a better show for late at night during Carnival. Still, cool drumming.

By the end of the day I was wiped out and I'm relaxing with a few Aleve and trying to get hydrated.

Go dogs!

Saturday, April 08, 2006

Echo Summit Again

Took a quick trip up to Echo Summit for a short snow shoe experience at the sno park. I had to break trail in heavy, wet snow with a slushy middle layer. It was a beautiful day though and once I'd spent my billion calories I headed home. I am so glad I bought those Cabela's pants, warm and cozy (and cheap!).

Wednesday, April 05, 2006

Dell Problems

I had some problems this morning with a video driver. Calling Dell was very irritating, especially the voice response system. Tonight a dll file was corrupted and I had to reinstall windows. Another couple hours down the drain. The giant screen is fabulous though. I'm assuming that I'll get used to the scratchpad instead of the trackball (or whatever).

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

New Dell

My new Dell arrived today after 5:30. Those poor UPS guys work much too hard!

I've got it mostly set up, I still can't send email. I can receive it, but not send it. I sure wish I could get on my old laptop to see what the magic setting is!

The screen is gi-normous on this thing...love it. It's a little more comfortable too. On the other hand, I hate the mouse pad device. There's only the pad which I've always thought was a lame way to navigate...unless you like flicking your finger 3 thousand times to move across the screen. Can't believe I missed that in the specs. I can always buy a wireless mouse though.

It's so clean and shiny too!

I've installed Firefox and Thunderbird and Google Earth. I need to find Solitaire and recreate my many, many bookmarks too.

Still, I'm glad I got it and it was all ready to go out of the box. I probably won't try my TV and remote control till the weekend when I have more time to futz around with everything.

Biking in San Jose

In spite of the rainy weather Donna and I headed out about mid-morning on Friday to bike along the Guadalupe River Park Trail in downtown San Jose. The city has certainly gotten much more dynamic and interesting since I lived there. The downtown city hall is beautiful too, especially the pillars lining the surrounding streets.

We headed north along the Guadalupe River and saw mallards galore. The water was high, but didn't threaten the trail at all. It was also cold and overcast, with no real sun. We made it as far as the airport and then headed back against a nasty headwind for home.

On Saturday, we went to the Berryessa Flea Market on our bikes and did a hour or so of shopping. Donna wanted to get a decorative hanging pink flamingo for her yard. They had parrots, but no flamingos. At the same stall, I bought a gift for Andy and Ira's Sonoma house. I can't wait until they see what it is!

Sunday was get away day and I headed back in time to go to the SPCA for a King's game dog mobile adoption. Fortunately, we have almost no dogs so with 5 volunteers and only 2 dogs I "volunteered" to go home and get my chores done.

Saturday, April 01, 2006

black metal pots 50 and 75
san jose marbury

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